War in the Middle East: Operational Priorities for Supply Chain Leaders
As the conflict in the Middle East escalates, Zero100 outlines four moves leaders can take to manage the consequences now — and in a broader era of sustained crisis.
On Saturday, the United States and Israel struck Iran, killing its supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. In response, Iran launched missile and drone attacks on sites in at least seven countries across the region.
Escalations involving Hezbollah in Lebanon and Israel, an attack on an oil tanker in the Gulf of Oman, and unrest in Pakistan have set the stage for unprecedented regional instability.
Major geopolitical events like these create immediate operational challenges and strategic questions for supply chain and operations leaders – from ensuring the safety of team members in affected regions to assessing exposure across transportation networks, supplier relationships, and critical infrastructure.
As these events continue to unfold, this guide aims to help leaders assess impact, protect teams, and maintain continuity, drawing on patterns from past disruptions and current intelligence.
Below, we outline four essential operational moves to work through in the coming days and weeks.
Four Essential Moves
1. Scope the Crisis – The global order that supply chain leaders knew from 1990 through 2019 has fundamentally changed, as evidenced by the World Uncertainty Index reaching record highs in February. Starting with Covid, we’ve seen major disruptions, including the Ukraine War and US Liberation Day tariffs. With each, we’ve gotten better at reading the signals and responding effectively.
Step one is to size the problem, using all relevant data and working as a team to sort through scenarios for likelihood and impact. Our 2025 survey of 100 COOs shows that sense-and-respond cycles for geopolitical crises take time: most predicted needing days or weeks to respond to serious disruption from external shocks this year. Ideally, you’ve already modeled the risk of an Iran war and have contingency plans in place. For teams who haven’t worked through this scenario yet, it’s time for a sprint.
2. People First – Right now, many supply chain and operations teams have people in places like Dubai, Doha, and Tel Aviv. Many also have families in the region who are at risk and may be hard to contact. There are also now suppliers, customers, and partners in harm’s way.
Starting from the top, every COO’s message to their entire team should address this problem first. Assuring people that their leaders care about safety is essential regardless of the crisis at hand.
3. Map Operational Exposure – Oil prices jumped about 10% on the news of war but are still well below peaks seen in 2022. Transportation lanes, especially through critical airports like Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Doha, but also the Strait of Hormuz and Suez Canal at sea, are impacted. Plus, infrastructure including seaports, refineries, and data centers, could be damaged or lost. Make your own list of potential choke points immediately.
The much harder but more important job is assessing second-order effects. First-order impacts, including spiking oil prices and transportation problems, are obvious. How they affect costs, availability, regulation, and the wider balance of power in adjacent arenas is critical to figure out. For supply chain leaders, these knock-on effects could change optimal raw material input profiles, sourcing locations, or inventory strategies.
And don’t underestimate rule changes, even if temporary, that can raise costs or extend lead times. Remember Covid-era safety rules that cost operations like Amazon billions of dollars to stay up and running.
4. Double Down on Regionalization – Much of the conversation around regional or even local supply chains has centered on reducing overdependence on China, but as this war demonstrates, the value of quarantining operations from the ultra-connectivity of old-school global supply chains goes a lot further.
Political pressure from industrial policy movements around the world is already enforcing both carrot and stick incentives to make products closer to home. Anxiety over critical materials and technologies undercuts global product platforms and communications systems. Plus, sustainability benefits of local-for-local supply chains hold promise of less material and energy waste through circularity.
For the many supply chain and operations leaders already working toward regionalization, this crisis is a call to action for investors and CEOs, some of whom still question the business case for scaling production and upstream suppliers in high-cost regions like North America and Europe.
Looking Ahead
These strategic moves are not just about responding to the conflict in the Middle East. It is a reminder to continue disaster-proofing your operations as we enter a time of perpetual crisis.