Iran Peace, Anthropic Block, Warsh at the Fed, SpaceX, EU Trade Deal: Supply Chain Quick Takes
From a ceasefire to a record-breaking IPO, there was a lot of big news this week. Here’s what the top five headlines mean for supply chain leaders.
Normally when I write the Zero100 Signal, there’s a hot topic with an important supply chain angle worthy of our readers. This week, there was just too much happening to do that, so here are five quick takes on the supply chain implications of the week’s biggest news stories.
Peace with Iran – Oil prices plunged, stocks celebrated, and the Trump administration declared victory as a peace deal was signed on Wednesday. The good news for supply chain leaders includes easing costs on transportation, chemicals, fertilizer, helium, and other commodities.
Unfortunately, the world now sees that anyone able to threaten safe passage through a material flow chokepoint can extract concessions. The Strait of Hormuz is just one of many waterways, airways, and transport lanes susceptible to extortion going forward. The IRGC is also only one of many actors, along with governments, terrorists, and unions, now schooled in how to use risk as leverage. Shorter, more localized supply chains keep getting more attractive.
Anthropic’s Fable 5 and Mythos 5 models blocked – The Trump administration banned non-US entities from using these powerful new cybersecurity-oriented models. The company has shut them down to ensure everyone complies. Negotiations with the administration are ongoing, but the race to use good AI to control bad AI has a new referee in Washington.
AI executives may flip between worrying about the upside of their impending IPOs and the downside of civilizational risk, but for supply chain leaders, the takeaway is about the security and governance of agentic systems (Zero100 members can read more on this in our cybersecurity report, which publishes tomorrow). Mythos is hot because it’s great at finding software vulnerabilities. Agentic systems raise the stakes for cybersecurity, and operations leaders need tools to help.
Kevin Warsh takes over at the Fed – The new Fed Chairman’s enthusiasm for “trimmed average” measures of inflation increases the chances that interest rates stay low and inflation worsens. This is because “trimming” the spikes, especially in volatile food and energy prices, keeps the lion’s share of affordability pain on poorer consumers who spend proportionally more on food and fuel. Investors gain at the expense of regular folks whose inflation expectations drive news cycles, which can kick off a price spiral.
For supply chain leaders, the takeaway is to double down on cost-saving packaging, SKU assortment, and delivery strategies, and make sure consumers know you’re doing it on purpose. Our Q4 2025 consumer survey shows many blame government policies and corporate greed for inflation. Brands like Walmart, Target, and Amazon that visibly work to help consumers save money stand to build trust in these times.
SpaceX’s $2.65T market cap beats Amazon’s three days after IPO – In keeping with the adage that truth is stranger than fiction, real-life Tony Stark, aka Elon Musk, has successfully monetized the sci-fi fantasy of reusable rockets to conquer space for profit. His SpaceX IPO last Friday has already risen 30%, confirming the investor appeal of selling picks and shovels during a gold rush.
The takeaway for supply chain and operations leaders is to think big when it comes to reimagining operating models in the AI age. SpaceX has already reduced the cost of launching communications satellites into space by around 80%, and, as a side benefit, built a data center (appropriately named Colossus) with enough capacity to win Anthropic as a customer. The engineering and financial audacity raise the bar for all of us.
EU agrees to trade deal with US – Just six months ago, Europe was losing it as the US stomped around Davos coveting Greenland. Suddenly, we have a deal, demonstrating two things: that negotiating with Brussels need not take years, and that the economic benefits of a trade truce outweigh the political appeal of policy purity.
The lesson for supply chain network planners is that trade compliance should not be left solely to government affairs. Dealmaking, especially when factory, technology, or R&D investments are concerned, requires deep operational knowledge. Working together with government affairs, supply chain leaders will increasingly find that trade regulations are less a code demanding compliance and more a set of guidelines to negotiate.
A big week in the news, and big times ahead.
Stay tuned.
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