El Niño Is a Chance to Build Supply Chain Trust with Customers

Kevin O'Marah

Oliver Sawbridge

October 01, 2026 • 5 min read

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Climate scientists are predicting a big jump in the power of this winter’s El Niño in the Pacific. Much warmer subsurface water temperatures hold massive energy, which promises big swings in precipitation and storm activity, and as many as 450,000 extra heat-related deaths worldwide by February 2027. What does it mean for supply chains?  

We’ve known about El Niño for decades, and although it likely means droughts, floods, and extreme heat around the world, none of this is unprecedented or impossible to handle from an operations standpoint. And yet, as El Niño interacts with other business continuity risks, we should expect intense media interest in supply chain disruption. 

Like Covid, this is a golden opportunity to engage customers in the shared mission of building supply chain resilience.

How’s the Weather? 

Having spent years working in London, we’ve come to appreciate the very British habit of starting business conversations trading quips about the weather. It is an equalizing topic that is at once relevant and indisputable.  

El Niño is a serious weather topic, and for the geographies impacted, absolutely will hurt supply chain performance via hazardous working conditions, restricted transport lanes, or compromised production assets. Floods, heatwaves, hurricanes, wildfires, and droughts justifiably make the news, even if they rarely disrupt supply for long.  

Unfortunately, they are no longer singular events visiting an otherwise stable world. There are at least four near-term supply chain risk domains with the potential to drive serious cost, availability, and reliability problems on their own. These include: 

1. US foreign policy post mid-terms, especially if Republicans lose control of Congress. We expect even more volatility. President Trump’s tariffs have already added up to 0.75 percentage points to US inflation. Curbs on immigration, tax cuts, and higher spending add more pressure. 
2. Escalation of Middle East conflict and the unpredictability of non-state actors. Without near-term peace prospects, energy and petrochemical supplies will suffer. Higher fuel, freight, insurance, and fertilizer costs could add 0.3 percentage points to inflation in rich economies this year and one point in poorer ones.
3. Trade war contagion spreading to Latin America, Africa, and Europe as China’s massive manufacturing capacity seeks new customers. Managed trade makes supply chains less efficient, and prices less predictable. 
4. AI rivalry accelerating inflationary spirals affecting energy and materials while undermining political cohesion. Those costs are feeding into producer and consumer prices. 

As these risk vectors interact (find more about this in our upcoming research report on megatrends and resilience) with the inflationary effects of extreme weather patterns – which will likely hit crops and water supplies in India, the Amazon, and Southeast Asia – disruptions should multiply.  

The forecast for supply chain stability is not promising.  

Customers Are Ready to Engage on Supply Chain Resilience 

Ten years ago, consumers and most B2B customers were largely oblivious to the challenges of upstream supply chain management. That has changed. Covid drove an initial spike in public awareness of supply chain, and this year, Google search interest in supply chain tripled between May 2025 and May 2026.  

Digging into this increase in public awareness, Zero100 surveyed 14,000 consumers in seven countries late last year, and found that over a third were aware of specific supply chain management tactics like outsourcing, automation, or AI. We also learned that younger, richer, and more digitally savvy consumers were 3x more likely to sign up for subscription services or other deals intended to save money by smoothing demand.

24% also said they think extreme weather events have contributed to shortages and/or price increases, third most among ten choices offered in the survey. Many consumers, it seems, are now prepared to listen if business communicates candidly about how El Niño affects supply chains.  

That awareness cuts both ways. Buyers who understand supply chains may forgive disruption, but not repeated failure. Availability now matters almost as much as price. Companies that build resilience can turn candor into trust; those that do not may lose customers with each stockout. 

What if we took this as an opportunity to work together with B2B customers and consumers to design more resilience into supply chains? Inventory pooling, postponement strategies, demand smoothing or bulk buying deals, reusable packaging, and many other innovative approaches to coping with supply chain disruption are easier with understanding customers.  

Start the Conversation Now 

Big consumer brands have started to warn that upstream supply chain problems can no longer be hidden from customers. Amazon, FedEx, and UPS have announced freight surcharges while communications from food retailers have warned of rising costs for fertilizer and fuel. The media is eager to talk about how supply disruptions flow through to regular peoples’ lives. 

Supply chain leaders and their communications teams can start this conversation simply by asking about the weather. 

They’ll get it.